13/05/2022
U&I Logistics - By analysis, Sea-Intelligence shows that the number of planned blank sailings is increasing on the Asia-Northern route, affecting the supply of goods and becoming a common concern of carriers on this trade lane.
To monitor recent changes in the blank sailing patterns on Transpacific and Asia-Europe, The Danish maritime data analysis company Sea-Intelligence (Denmark) used data from their own Blank Sailing Tracker system for easy review.
From the first week of 2022 onwards, Sea-Intelligence has calculated the number of train cancellations expected for the next 8 weeks. The following week, Sea-Intelligence also calculated the number of planned blank sailings over the same eight-week period, then they calculated the change from week 1 to week 2.
The results of this calculation are highly volatile, as vessels can slide back and forth between the weeks. For this reason, the analysts took a two-week rolling average.
In the figure below, we can see an increasing trend in Asia-North Europe, indicating that carriers are increasing their blanking activity on the trade lane. Although the number itself appears relatively low, we need to keep in mind that the baseline number of regularly scheduled services per week is currently 19.
“When we perform the same analysis on the Asia-Mediterranean, we found the exact opposite,” said Sea-Intelligence. There was an upward trend in March 2022, which reversed in the following weeks and now there is no additional blanking activity.".
“This is perhaps a reason why the rate levels in the Asia-Mediterranean region have held up more firmly than in Asia-North Europe '', concludes Sea-Intelligence.
On the Asia-North America West Coast, there is a spike in the early part of the year due to Lunar New Year, but in recent weeks the changes made by the carriers on a weekly basis have remained fairly stable..
Sea-Intelligence concluded: “We see a similar case on the Asia-North America East Coast, with the only difference that the spike came a little later than on Asia-North America West Coast. Sea-Intelligence further commented: "Given what we see on Asia-North Europe, it is perhaps indicative of carriers’ concerns about vessel utilization on that trade lane".
The number of planned blank sailings on the Asia-Northern Europe route caused high freight rates and difficulties when booking. If the blanking activity increases day by day, it will directly affect the import and export of enterprises and subsequent stages. Supply chain disruptions and market volatility mentioned above will continue to increase congestion and pressure in transport activities in the near future.
Many businesses share that they are struggling to bear the brunt of the higher rates, and have also applied a series of measures such as extending and delaying delivery time. However, if the blanking situation continues for a long time, many businesses will not have enough revenue to spend on transportation and other expenses.
Besides, depending on the products being traded, enterprises will conduct research on exporting to each market to reduce the burden.
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